BTC/USD Forex Signal: Recovering from $31,000

Adam Lemon

Bitcoin briefly hit a 2-week low price.

Last Monday’s Bitcoin signals produced a nicely profitable short trade from the bearish reversal at $36,792 and it is probably worth closing out any open remainder of this trade by now.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $32,432 or $28,607.
  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $34,968 or $36,792.
  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that the technical picture had become more confusing. All we could see in the price chart then was a short to medium-term new bearish price channel, while the longer-term picture was a burst bubble and the price consolidating in a shoulder just above the $30k area. Therefore, I thought that over the short-term lower prices look likely, so I was seeking short trades from bearish reversals at any resistance level from $37,283 or lower.

This was a good call which produced a profitable trade as we got the reversal and the price falling to a new two-week low.

Although we saw the price make a new low some hours ago, it has bounced back quite strongly and even printed new higher support levels, with the lower one at $32,432 now looking attractive for a long trade.

I have seen the area close to $30k as an important pivotal point for some time now, with the area likely to give either a buying opportunity (which we may be seeing right now), or a selling opportunity if it breaks down. There is likely to be more potential quickly following a bearish breakdown.

Therefore, I am happy to take a long trade if we get a bullish bounce at $32,432, or if we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $30,000.

BTC/USD

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data at 3:30pm London time followed by the 10 Year U.S. Treasuries Auction at 6:01pm.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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