BTC/USD Forex Signal: Narrowing Triangle Breakout Coming

Adam Lemon

The price holding up from the $30k area is a bullish sign.

Last Monday’s Bitcoin signals produced a losing short trade from the bearish reversal at the resistance level identified at $37,341.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $35,106, $33,475, $28,607, or $31,953.
  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $37,855, $39,048 or $42,263.
  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday we like had a pivotal zone at about $30k, with initial evidence that the area was more likely to hold than break down, although I saw good potential on the short side if the price could get established below $30k.

This was a good call, as the price has continued to advance as that area holds up, albeit weakly.

The technical picture in Bitcoin right now is all about the consolidating, narrowing triangle which has contained the price for several days, with the price showing little direction within it.

This suggests that a breakout from the triangle could be significant, especially as the horizontal key support and resistance levels seem very evenly balanced and spaced.

I will be more comfortable with a bullish than with a bearish bias due to the firm support we seem to have below this triangle in the $30k area.

However, a bullish breakout from the narrowing consolidating triangle will be best confirmed as a valid bullish signal by the price quickly breaking up above the resistance level at $39,048.

I will take a bullish bias today if we get two consecutive hourly closes above $39,048.

BTC/USD

Regarding the USD, there are no data releases of high importance scheduled for today.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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