BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Turn

Adam Lemon

The price effectively remains within a wide consolidation pattern.

Last Monday’s Bitcoin signals were not triggered as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $33,617 or $32,438.
  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $35,471, $37,198, or $38,218.
  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that bulls were in control but would ultimately likely be unable to push the price much higher. I expected that the resistance at $36,279 would probably hold.

I thought that the most likely scenario for the day was a consolidation above the nearest support level without the next resistance level being reached.

This was a good call, as although the price was able to exceed that level somewhat, it could not really get established above it.

The price has taken a bearish turn in recent hours after struggling to advance much beyond $36k.

Zooming out, we can see that Bitcoin is consolidating over the medium term after a fall in price, and this consolidation has been holding for many days. As this situation persists, predicting direction here is challenging. The best that can be said is that the price is likely to remain within the zone between about $30k and $36.5k for a while longer.

This means that the only realistic set up I can see here today worth paying attention to would be a short trade from another advance to and failure at the $36,500 area. Otherwise, it will probably be wise to leave Bitcoin alone today.

BTC/USD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP non-farm employment change forecast at 1:15pm London time today.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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