The USD/ZAR has continued to demonstrate an ability to incrementally track lower and is now touching long-term support levels.
Bearish momentum continued to deliver an incrementally downward trajectory in May, and the USD/ZAR is now perched within long-term support levels which should be given consideration by traders. As the month of June gets ready to be underway, the USD/ZAR has exhibited an ability to test lower values as its bearish trend seemingly prepares to battle long-term technical charts.
The USD/ZAR is near the bottom rung of support levels last seen in February of 2019. While speculators may be greedily contemplating the possibility of late January values in 2019 near the 13.30000 juncture, the USD/ZAR first needs to actually establish that it has the capability to bust through the 13.70000 to 13.55000 junctures. Rome was not built in a day, and goals within Forex trading are seldom accomplished based on wishful thinking. The trajectory of the USD/ZAR, while turning in a steady bearish move, is certainly prone to reversals higher.
May trading for the USD/ZAR started near the 14.50000 level, following a slight move higher that was made in late April after the Forex pair was testing support near the 14.13000 mark. It is true that the USD/ZAR was able to demonstrate durable resistance the entire month of May and these levels decreased regularly, which absolutely helped speculators who were wagering on downside price action. The same rules apply as the month of June gets underway; traders need to consider the possibility that values may sometimes move higher. Having accomplished a rather strong bearish trend, the 14.00000 mark is a semi-distant, short-term resistance level now.
Speculators who want to continue to pursue more downward price action from the USD/ZAR cannot be faulted, but they must not be too greedy with their projections and allow the Forex pair to work towards lower long-term support levels with patience. Traders should be careful to keep their positions based on realistic outlooks and be willing to cash in profitable positions if and when they emerge. The USD/ZAR continues to demonstrate a tendency to trend lower, but short-term traders certainly should expect natural, cyclical movement within the Forex pair that can establish reversals upward.
South African Rand Outlook for June:
Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 13.31000 to 14.49000.
Traders may have gotten use to the downside trajectory of the USD/ZAR. However ,months like this past May are not common, and its results should not lull speculators into false confidence. Support junctures near the 13.70000 to 13.60000 level are certainly within sight. If the 13.70000 level is penetrated lower and the USD/ZAR is able to sustain its value below this mark, traders can certainly consider even more bearish momentum.
Long-term lows of 13.60000 were made in February of 2019. If this level proves vulnerable, a test of January 2019 depths may begin to be anticipated. Yes, the trend of the USD/ZAR remains favorable for speculative selling wagers, but traders are urged to be realistic regarding their expectations.
However, after the strong downward performance of the USD/ZAR in May, it may be natural for some pushback from the Forex pair in the coming weeks. The current range of the USD/ZAR between 13.76000 and 13.90000 should be monitored closely. Thus far, the Forex pair has certainly been able to maintain this price band rather well the past week, but that is not a long duration.
If resistance near the 13.93000 level begins to be tested and the USD/ZAR is able to maintain its value within this vicinity, some speculators may believe the 14.00000 mark will become a target. While upside momentum has proven rather lackluster within the USD/ZAR, it certainly still exists regarding its capability to produce short-term moves upward, and traders should not forget this. If the USD/ZAR fights higher and touches the 14.10000 level, it would indicate that short-term trends have shifted and the Forex pair could extend bullish momentum. While it feels difficult in the present to suggest the USD/ZAR can move much higher than the 14.15000 level, traders should always be prepared for short-term squeezes.