AUD/USD Forex Signal: Weakly Bullish Consolidation

Adam Lemon

The markets are lacking clear direction right now.

Last Tuesday’s AUD/USD signals produced a profitable long trade from the bullish pin candlestick reversal at 0.7741.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7776 or 0.7816.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Adjust 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7696.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Adjust 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote last Tuesday that the price seemed to be rising to challenge the bearish trend lines which were suppressing the price. I thought that if we had gotten a bullish breakout beyond the trend lines plus the horizontal resistance level at 0.7779, that would be a bullish sign of a medium-term trend change.

I was ready to take a bullish bias on this currency pair if we had gotten two consecutive higher closes above the level at 0.7779. We did, but unfortunately the price made a bullish peak at this point before falling, so this was not a great call. However, I may have been right about the change of medium-term trend from bearish to bullish, as we arguably continue to see a pattern of higher highs and lows, although this does look precarious.

It is fair to summarize this currency pair as being in a very weakly bullish consolidation between roughly the support at 0.7696 and the resistance at 0.7816. Therefore, I am only prepared to trade reversals from either of these extremes today, should they set up. Apart from these potential opportunities, it will probably be wise to avoid trading this risk barometer pair in the current mostly indecisive and directionless Forex market, unless we get surprising U.S. GDP data later after New York opens.

AUD/USD

Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP data at 1:30pm..

There is nothing of high importance scheduled for today concerning the AUD.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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