The USD/INR is still within sight of its upper range and is maintaining a quick trading pace, but incremental steps lower are curious.
The USD/INR has managed to keep its quick trading pace alive and create volatility for speculators. While the Forex pair maintains its ability to stay within sight of its upper price range, it has also been able to attempt a push lower. In early trading this morning, the USD/INR has driven higher after going into the weekend testing support.
The USD/INR has seen rampant volatility the past ten days; its moves are likely a result of penetrating long-term resistance and a needed recalibration by commercial houses, which need to make cash transactions and hedge against fluctuations within the Forex pair. Since reaching a high of nearly 75.4500 early last week, the USD/INR has been able to produce incremental movement downwards, but traders are likely skittish after seeing the bullish momentum prove durable since the 23rd of March.
As of this morning, the USD/INR is traversing near the 74.9500 level, but is still flirting with the 75.0000 juncture which may prove to be an important psychological juncture. The 75.0000 has been broken higher consistently the last ten days, and even after the move lower since the 15th of April, the USD/INR has not been able to safely stay away from this value.
Speculators will likely remain cautious while trading the USD/INR and try to capture momentum. If the USD/INR breaks above the 75.0000 juncture, traders should look for resistance levels which are not overly greedy. The USD/INR may try to retest highs seen early last week, but until it does so, traders should not expect to see this happen. The USD/INR has proven difficult the past few weeks to trade for bearish speculators, but they may suspect that the Forex pair will start to run off higher momentum.
However, trying to predict the timeline for an eventual strong reversal lower in the USD/INR has proven difficult. If the USD/INR can see a sustained amount of trading below the 75.0000 juncture, traders may want to look for the potential of bearish moves and actually try to sell the Forex pair. Trading within the USD/INR has been fast and speculators need to use solid tactical risk management to protect against volatility.
Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 75.0500
Current Support: 74.7300
High Target: 75.1400
Low Target: 74.4000