The USD/INR remains on an upward drive as bullish momentum has proven strong and appears to be gaining traction. Long-term resistance levels have been brushed aside with ease as the USD/INR trades in a manner that has little correlation to other major Forex pairs. The Indian rupee has taken on a weaker tone regarding its value since the Reserve Bank of India has begun to say it plans on initiating a massive amount of bonds.
While this has likely had an effect on the recent weakness of the USD/INR, speculators should also know that a complex mix of economic considerations exist when gauging the Indian rupee. Technically, the USD/INR has certainly entered waters it has not traversed since the middle of July 2020. The notion that the USD/INR's bearish trend has come to a halt and a bullish trend has been ignited must be contemplated by traders.
The question now facing speculators is whether the highest degrees of risk/reward are worth wagering on, taking into consideration potential moves of the Forex pair. The USD/INR traded near the 76.2000 vicinity in the middle of June 2020, but this level still looks like a rather tough hill to climb. However, the results within the USD/INR since the end of the first week in March may make this notion rather meek. The drive upwards has been strong and it will take a speculator with a serious amount of fortitude to sell the USD/INR at these levels.
The USD/INR should be treated very carefully at this time; the results the past week of trading have been volatile. Traders should watch the 75.0000 juncture, and if this level proves it can sustain the higher values of the USD/INR, it may be a signal that additional short-term buying momentum might be expressed.
Yes, the USD/INR appears to have gained too much bullish traction, but stepping in front of the trend at this time should only be done by traders who can use risk management tools with a top skillset. Selling the USD/INR may look attractive, but traders need to be conservative and aim for quick-hitting trades that do not seek too much in the way of downside movement short term. A reversal lower can certainly develop, but timing the exact moment this will occur is a dangerous speculative wager.
Indian Rupee Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 75.2300
Current Support: 75.0300
High Target: 75.7500
Low Target: 74.7000
