Gold Forecast: Markets Continue to Build Base

Christopher Lewis

One thing I think you can count on is a lot of choppiness.

Gold markets initially pulled back during the trading session on Tuesday as we are moving back and forth with yields. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to decide whether or not the $1750 level is a potential barrier, or if it will be broken through. I think another thing we need to pay attention to is the 50-day EMA, which sits just above there, so ultimately it will be interesting to see whether or not we can overcome all of this.

If we do, then the market is likely to go looking towards the 200-day EMA after that, which is sitting just below the $1800 level. Breaking above that opens up a much bigger move just waiting to happen, sending gold into a significant uptrend. I think that at this point, we have a lot of work to make that happen, so I am not looking forward to seeing something occur quickly.

On the other hand, if we were to break down from here, we could go looking towards that previous double bottom, and breaking down below there opens up the possibility of a bigger move to the downside. If we were to break down below there, then it is likely that we could go towards the $1500 level. After all, this is a market that has been in a major downtrend for a while, so if we are trying to turn things back around it is going to take quite a bit of work to make all of this happen.

Keep an eye on the yields in America, because they have a major influence on what happens next. If yields rise, that could work against gold, as we have seen multiple times. However, if yields continue to drop like they did during the trading session, it is possible that we could go even lower. That would be the main catalyst that we been paying attention to for so long, and you need to pay attention to whether the US dollar is strengthening or weakening. It typically moves opposite to gold. It still early, but right now it looks like we are at least trying to turn things back around. One thing I think you can count on is a lot of choppiness.

Gold

Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

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