BTC/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation in Mid-$50k Zone

Adam Lemon

The price looks likely to remain stuck while risk barometer settles in markets.

Last Monday’s Bitcoin signals were not triggered, as the price never quite reached the key support level which I identified at $61,240 that day.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $55,600, $52,664, or $51,634.

  • Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $57,334, $58,450, $59,280 or $61,240.

  • Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Monday that we were seeing a much less bullish technical picture with lots of support and resistance levels close by, so price action looked likely to be choppy and consolidative.

I thought that it would probably make sense to buy at extreme levels of support or to sell at extreme levels of resistance. I was looking to take a long trade from a bullish bounce at $52,664 or a short trade from a bearish reversal at $59,280.

This was a good call as the price has continued to consolidate in a wide range as I expected, although I was a little off with the levels, with unfortunately neither of them being reached yet. The price chart below shows that we have a consolidation pattern between $57,581 and $52,664. I expect this consolidation to continue and these levels to hold over the short term, so I again see the best approach to trade Bitcoin as playing the range and being ready to trade convincing reversals from either of these boundary levels of the consolidation zone.

As there is probably some residual bullish momentum left from the long-term trend, despite the deep bearish retracement, I slightly prefer a long trade from $52,664 to a short trade from $57,581.

BTC/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled concerning the USD.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

Did you like what you read? Let us know what you think!

exclamation mark

Please make sure your comments are appropriate and that they do not promote services or products, political parties, campaign material or ballot propositions. Comments that contain abusive, vulgar, offensive, threatening or harassing language, or personal attacks of any kind will be deleted. Comments including inappropriate will also be removed.

0 User comments

exclamation mark

Please make sure your comments are appropriate and that they do not promote services or products, political parties, campaign material or ballot propositions. Comments that contain abusive, vulgar, offensive, threatening or harassing language, or personal attacks of any kind will be deleted. Comments including inappropriate will also be removed.

Read more
Add new comment
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.