WTI Crude Oil Forecast: April 2021

Robert Petrucci

March saw early highs for WTI Crude Oil followed by a reversal lower, and then a swift decline in the middle of the month followed by a recovery.

WTI Crude Oil is hovering within the weaker depths of its mid-term range as its trades slightly above 60.00 USD per barrel.  In early March trading WTI experienced a rise to nearly 68.00 on the 5th of March. The commodity subsequently began to reverse lower, trade in a range of 63.60 to 66.30 for about a week and then stumble on the 18th of March when it hit nearly 59.00 USD.

Technically WTI Crude Oil may have found a solid trading range which it will have to fight through to produce a different value band.  Crude Oil may be within a competitively priced ratio within current market conditions. The past few days have heard the notion that WTI may have risen due to the container ship blocking access in the Suez Canal and causing concerns regarding energy supply, but that is only conjecture. The container ship has been freed and vessel traffic is flowing again smoothy in the canal and prices have not slumped dramatically.

The past few months have been kind to WTI Crude Oil and the value of the commodity has risen, but the early March heights may prove to be difficult to surpass in April.  Technically and fundamentally the price of WTI Crude Oil looks like it may have hit a momentary peak taking into consideration current supply and demand ratios. Fundamentally the rumor that the US is about to potentially begin offering Iran more room to work internationally via less restrictive sanctions may serve as a base to make speculative traders more tranquil too. A lack of tensions within the geo-political sphere may allow prices to trade in a known range.

Support levels near 60.00 USD and below do look somewhat attractive technically and this is where traders may find an opportunity to take advantage of the market.  If a speculator can practice patience and not over leverage their positions, the 60.00 mark may serve as an adequate area to position buying orders. Conservative traders may be tempted to wait for more downside action based on support levels of nearly 57.00 being touched one week ago.

WTI Crude Oil demand may continue to incrementally increase if global economic conditions brighten.  The darkest days of coronavirus seemingly have passed for the largest consumers of the commodity and while the threat of another surge in the virus continues to shadow, optimism is potentially helping bolster commodity prices such as WTI Crude Oil in the future markets. Traders who are actively looking for buying positions should make sure they do not target prices which are too high. Selectively using support levels which are now within sight as a launching pad for buying positions may prove to be a rather solid speculative avenue.

The current price band for WTI may mirror the price ratios seen in March. Traders should not expect the price of the commodity to raise too much past existing higher resistance levels which were demonstrated in early March. WTI Crude Oil may trade rather comfortably between 59.00 to 66.00 USD in the weeks ahead if current market conditions prevail.

WTI Crude Oil Outlook for April:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 56.90 to 68.00 USD.

March proved to produce a broad range for WTI and support did approach the 57.00 mark, which may indicate it is still vulnerable to lower values.

Speculative interest could propel WTI towards resistance levels, the 68.00 mark may seem high, but if the 66.00 mark proves weak, speculative zeal could drive the commodity higher and through higher resistance.

Crude oil

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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