USD/ZAR: Tight Range Movement as Important Support Tested

Robert Petrucci

The USD/ZAR has been able to produce a rather tight range the past couple of days, but important support levels are being tested.

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The USD/ZAR has produced a fairly consolidated range short term, but there have been bounces within the current value band. In early trading this morning, important support levels are being tested as the USD/ZAR hovers near the 14.85000 juncture. The mark of 14.84000 should be monitored below and if this level proves to be vulnerable, another test of lower values could quickly ensue.

Interestingly, as the USD/ZAR accomplishes this technical movement and tests support levels once again, global traders are showing some signs of nervousness in Forex and this could have an effect on the South African rand. However, the 15.00000 continues to prove a lightning rod regarding technical sentiment within the USD/ZAR and the recent ability of the Forex pair to sustain its values below this juncture may be producing speculative selling to ensue short term.

The long-term trend of the USD/ZAR has been bearish and this movement remains in evidence as the South African rand continues to flirt with lower values. Speculators who are skeptical of the downside short term may however see the current values of the USD/ZAR as a potential buying opportunity. If the 14.85000 mark proves durable, traders may believe that a slight bullish trend could emerge near term.

If the 14.92000 to 14.96000 levels come into sight, the rather consolidated range of the USD/ZAR may erode and a potential move above the 15.0000 juncture could unfold. Traders should remember that Friday will see much less volume as the Good Friday holiday is observed. This could mean that financial institutions try to position themselves for a long weekend and this may deliver a dose of volatility to transpire in Forex.

The USD/ZAR has certainly proven it has the capability of maintaining a rather sincere bearish stance, but traders may be wise to look for slight reversals higher near term. Yes, important support levels are being tested this morning and traders may believe the USD/ZAR has enough room to traverse lower and test values which have been produced abundantly in March near the 14.84000 to 14.75000 marks.

However, speculators who believe the USD/ZAR may run of bearish sentiment near term may believe opportunity exists to actually buy the Forex pair within its current depths and use support levels below as stop loss ratios. From a risk/reward perspective, there does appear to be more room for the USD/ZAR to traverse higher compared to lower depths in the short term.

South African Rand Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 14.96000

Current Support: 14.84000

High Target: 15.04000

Low Target: 14.75000

USD/ZAR

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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