USD/BRL: Incremental Bullish Momentum Causing Concerns

Robert Petrucci

The USD/BRL has produced a rather consistent short-term incremental trend upwards as the Forex pair demonstrates bullish sentiment.

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The USD/BRL has traded higher yet again and yesterday’s trading started with a gap upwards. A rather tight consolidated value band of the USD/BRL has been on display since early January, but yesterday’s move higher broke through important resistance before a reversal lower was produced. The USD/BRL has created a speculative environment which favors short-term traders who use nearby take-profits and wider stop losses in order to battle against the unwieldy results from the Forex pair.

A look at a three-month chart shows that the USD/BRL has actually produced an incremental bullish trend. Monday’s high of nearly 5.5400 actually tested values not seen since early November of 2020. If the USD/BRL can sustain its higher price, it may cause some speculators to suspect that another test of highs is possible. The USD/BRL traded above the 5.7000 juncture in late October.

However, the USD/BRL has also produced a rather tight range the past month-and-a-half, thus speculators need to watch current values and see if the Forex pair has the ability to maintain its higher water values above the 5.5000 level. Current price action after achieving yesterday’s highs did produce a reversal lower and may cause some traders to suspect that the USD/BRL will decline as a natural cyclical reaction. Traders should remember that the USD/BRL has been trading between the 5.3000 and 5.5000 marks since the last week of January on a rather consistent basis.

If the USD/BRL is able to demonstrate an ability to not rise violently early today when trading opens, the Forex pair may be ready to produce a move downwards which will offer speculators an opportunity to seek take-profit orders near current support ratios. However, if the USD/BRL suddenly breaks above the 5.5000 juncture, it may be a signal that additional bullish momentum may be generated.

The USD/BRL has produced consistently choppy trading the past month, but it has done this within a rather tight range. Yesterday’s movement higher and its puncturing of resistance levels may be a warning sign that the USD/BRL is capable of traversing higher, but skeptical traders may be tempted to remain speculative sellers and seek lower values based on the past one-month results that the Forex pair has produced via technical charts.

Brazilian Real Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 5.4990

Current Support: 5.4300

High Target: 5.5600

Low Target: 5.3500

USD/BRL chart

Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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