EUR/USD Forex Signal: Close to Strong Resistance

Adam Lemon

1.2154 looks likely to be pivotal today.

Last Tuesday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level identified at 1.2097 during that day’s London session.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2154 or 1.2200.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2113, 1.2089, or 1.2021.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote last Tuesday that the price may be close to running out of room to rise as it approached a confluence of resistance at 1.2100, which was likely to be strengthened by the cluster of resistance levels above it.

Therefore, I saw a potential short trade at 1.2097 or 1.2120 as the best opportunity.

This was not a great call as the price broke past these levels over the next 24 hours relatively easily, although it was the British Pound that made a stronger rise against the USD.

The technical picture is bullish over the short to medium term, but we still have a quite long-term bearish trend line not far above the current price which has not yet had a third touch. The confluent resistance level at 1.2154 looks pivotal there. To be bullish here, I really need to see that resistance level decisively broken.

There is clear flipped stairstep higher support now at 1.2113 and a bullish bounce there looks like a good long trade entry even before 1.2154 is broken, provided the trade is monitored carefully on a short time frame, provided the price remains below 1.2154.

I still feel the best potential trade in terms of pips would be a short trade from any strong bearish reversal at 1.2154.

This currency pair is likely to be in focus today due to major economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the U.S.

EUR/USD chart

Regarding the EUR, there will be a release of E.U. Economic Forecasts at 10am London time. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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