Last Wednesday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at the support level identified at $44,898 when it was first reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $45,728 or $44,072.
Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $50,000.
Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that we were seeing a normal bearish retracement within a very bullish technical picture.
I saw Bitcoin remaining an interesting short-term buy if we got two consecutive hourly closes later above $50,000 or from a bullish bounce between $44,900 and $45,000.
We got neither a break above $50K nor a bounce before $44,900, so in a sense this was a good call as it would have kept you out of a slightly bullish but basically sideways Bitcoin market.
The price hit an all-time high a little way above $49,000 just a few hours ago, but this is deceptive as the price chart below shows the price has lost most of its bullish momentum over the past few days. We are even seeing now for the first time in a while a relatively convincing new lower resistance level, at $48,206.
I think it will be dangerous to take a short trade from $48,206, but $50k will likely be a better bet as the price is very likely to struggle to get much higher than that, at least over the short term.
There is still residual bullish momentum and paradoxically the U.S. holiday today is quite likely to increase trading volume in Bitcoin as its one of the few truly tradable assets in the U.S. on a holiday, so I think we will see buyers coming into the market later when the U.S. east coast starts to wake up.
I will be happy to take a long trade from a bullish bounce which might occur at either $45,728 or $44,072.
It is a public holiday in the U.S. today so of course there is nothing scheduled concerning the dollar.