This week we will begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 18 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months.
Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates.
Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast January 2021
For the month of January, we forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will be likely to rise in value. The performance to date is shown in the table below:
Weekly Forecast 17th January 2021
Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no unusually strong counter-trend price movements in the Forex market over the previous week.
This week, we again make no forecast, as although the GBP/SEK currency cross made a strong counter-trend movement, we do not expect the long-term trend is very likely to resume next week.
The Forex market showed a similar level of volatility compared to the previous week, with just under 26% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value last week. Volatility is likely to increase over the coming week.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the British pound, and relative weakness in the euro.
You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Previous Monthly Forecasts
You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.
