Last Monday’s signals produced a profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at 1.2193.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2227 or 1.2279 or 1.2354.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2193 or 1.2107.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Monday that the likely short-term outcome was one of consolidation with bearish pressure. This meant trades might profitably be found at reversals from either support or resistance levels. I was looking to either trade long following a bullish reversal at 1.2120, or short from a bearish reversal at 1.2193.
This was a good call as the resistance level I had identified at 1.2193 held and could have given an opportunity for a short trade entry which would have produced about 40 pips worth of profit, although the reversal really took too long to look like a very attractive entry signal.
We saw the U.S. dollar regain some ground over recent days, but it is falling again almost everywhere, although not particularly strongly. This means the long-term bullish trend in this currency pair seems to be beginning to reassert itself, suggesting there may be long trade opportunities now.
I do not think bulls should get excited yet, but should wait and see if the price can get established above the nearby resistance level at 1.2227, after which point a long trade may be taken from that level acting as support, although I see the price as unlikely to rise above 1.2277, which looks like strong resistance. A short trade from a bearish reversal at 1.2277 could also be interesting.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.