Last Monday’s signals produced a losing short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level I had identified at 1.2285.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2354 or 1.2436.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2313, 1.2256, or 1.2234.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote last Monday that I saw the most potential here as to the downside if the lower trend line broke down, as the price could then fall all the way to 1.2107 without reaching any key support.
I also thought it was significant that the dollar was weak but the euro, unlike the British pound, was not advancing against it.
This was an OK call, insofar as the price did not break below the lower trend line, so I at least got the pivotal point correct.
The price has continued to advance slowly and be held within the boundaries of the symmetrical bullish ascending price channel which is shown in the price chart below. This, along with the long-term bullish trend and the fact that the price is currently making new long-term high prices above 1.2300, is a bullish sign.
I take a bullish bias here today and if the price can get established above 1.2354, I will be even more bullish.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the EUR. Concerning the USD, the FOMC will publish its most recent meeting minutes at 7 PM London time.