Last Wednesday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level identified at $36,674 that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $33,990 or $30,011.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $36,875, $37,752, $38,742, or $40,092.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Wednesday that the price was consolidating within a wide range between $30,011 and $36,674. I was prepared to trade reversals from either $30,011 or $36,674 as I saw that the price was likely to continue to consolidate within this range.
This was a pretty good call over the medium term as although the price did trade considerably higher than my upper limit, it never made a new all-time high, and has fallen to trade mostly within the quoted range over the past few days.
I believe we have seen a long-term peak in Bitcoin at $42,000 which will not be exceeded for some considerable time, and that this current pattern of consolidation will continue, most likely with a declining level of volatility. An important sign pointing to this is that we are seeing the price action recently print both new lower resistance and new higher support levels.
Due to this pattern of increasing congestion, I think this is a good time to stand aside from trading Bitcoin, except a price reversal at an extreme level.
I see suitable trades as a long entry from a bullish reversal at $33,011 or a short entry from a bearish reversal at $38,742 or $40,092.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the USD. It is a public holiday today in the USA.