Yesterday’s signals produced a nicely profitable short trade entry from the bearish reversal at the resistance level identified at 1.2005. This trade should have already been exited for profit as the price action has turned firmly bullish again.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.2005.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1961, 1.1919, or 1.1882.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price was now likely to rise to test the 1.2000 area. I saw a bearish reversal here as a potentially good long-term short trade, but its odds of success I thought were not strong.
This was a great call as the price did rise to 1.2000 yesterday as I forecasted before making a strong bearish reversal which I also foresaw was quite likely to happen.
The strength of the move down from 1.2000 yesterday suggested that the recent bullish run was most likely over and that the price would not see 1.2000 again for a while. However, despite falling strongly and breaking below support, the price has rebounded surprisingly strongly and gotten re-established above the support level which I have readjusted to 1.1961.
The U.S. dollar is being sold everywhere today and risk-on sentiment appears stronger, so it looks more likely that the price is going to make another attempt to break above 1.2000 today.
Despite that, it is questionable whether the price will be able to get established above 1.2000.
I will take a short trade today if we get a firm bearish reversal at 1.2000, or a long trade if the New York close later is above 1.2005.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time when the Chair of the Federal Reserve will also begin testifying before Congress. There is nothing of very high importance scheduled today regarding the EUR.