Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level at $19,314 was first reached.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $18,330, $17,900, or $17,537.
Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $19,429, $19,864 or $20,000.
Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the technical picture had become a little more bearish, with the price threatening to break below the bearish trend line. I was right to be more pessimistic about the price breaking to new a high as it did not, and the trend line was broken down the next day.
As I have been saying over the past few days, this price area near $20,000 remains very pivotal for Bitcoin.
If the price can close above $20,000 at the end of a day, it will be worth trying to take a long trade to exploit the breakout as the price could rise much higher quickly. On the other hand, a major bearish reversal from a double top could be a good long- to medium-term short trade.
The technical picture, after looking more bearish, has become a bit more bullish over recent hours, with the short-term price action showing buying slowly pushing the price higher into the nearby resistance level at $19,430. If the price makes a strong failure to break this level, it could produce a good longer-term short trade. If the price gets established above it, that would be a bullish sign, but I do not want to take any long trades here until we get a New York close above $20,000. Bulls should have the patience to wait for this. Better to lose a few dollars at the start of a breakout trade than get into a fake breakout repeatedly.
It is worth keeping a close eye on Bitcoin right now, especially as we are at the end of a calendar year and so close to both the all-time high and a big round number at $20,000 – but bulls will be best off showing patience and discipline right now.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD.