Trading Support and Resistance

Adam Lemon

This week, we forecast that the AUD/USD is likely to rise in value.

This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let us look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

Monthly Forecast October 2020

This month, we forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair was likely to fall in value. Its performance to date is as follows:

USD/JPY

Weekly Forecast 18th October 2020 

Last week, we made no weekly forecast, as there were no very strong counter-trend price movement to exploit.

This week, we forecast that the AUD/USD is likely to rise in value.

The Forex market showed a very similar level of volatility compared to the previous week, with only 32% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value last week. Volatility is likely to be at a slightly higher level this week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Japanese Yen and relative weakness in the Australian Dollar.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Previous Monthly Forecasts

You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Key Support and Resistance Levels
Let us see how trading a reversal from two of last week’s key levels would have worked out:

GBP/USD

We had expected the level at 1.3079 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level right at the end of last Monday’s London session, turning decisively bearish when a bearish pin candlestick broke down right away at the down arrow shown in the price chart below. This trade has been nicely profitable despite subsequent volatile price action, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 6 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick.

GBP/USD Hourly Price Chart

USD/CAD

We had expected the level at 1.3250 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level towards the end of last Thursday’s London session, turning decisively bearish when a bearish inside candlestick broke down right away at the down arrow shown in the price chart below. This trade has been profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio so far of more than 2 to 1 based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

USDCAD Hourly Price Chart

That is all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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