The NASDAQ 100 fell initially during the trading session on Thursday but turned around to form a massive hammer. This hammer suggests that we are going to see a bit of buying pressure and we should continue to go towards the highs again. This is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy trading, but ultimately this is an area that is a bit of a “no man’s land”, as it is above a recent break down, but it is below the major resistance above.
Regardless, we are in an uptrend and even though some people are screaming for a “double top pattern”, the reality is that every time the market is likely to break down, the reality is that the buyers have come back to push the S&P 500 higher. The way that the index is constructed, it is no easy feat to start shorting the market. After all, it is just a handful of stocks attend to push this index, and of course it is constructed to go higher. Underneath, the 11,000 level underneath is massive support, but we also have plenty of support at the 50 day EMA. Above there, we also have a major amount of support at the 11,550 handle. Ultimately, I think that this is a market that does continue to go to the all-time highs but whether or not we can do it right away is a completely different question.
Even if we do break down from here, I think that this is simply going to be an opportunity to pick up the NASDAQ 100 “on the cheap.” In fact, I do not have a scenario in which I am a seller anytime soon, and even if we were to form a major breakdown at this point, the real money in the NASDAQ 100 is to simply buy on dips. While we do get major meltdowns occasionally, the reality is that it is very difficult to time these things, and they are almost always short-lived. This is because the Federal Reserve does everything it can to support the markets, and of course the minute that we get one whiff of fiscal stimulus, stock market start to skyrocket yet again. It is a myth to suggest that stock markets have anything to do with the economy or the open auction of value. It has been an argument over liquidity for the last 12 years. Because of this, the behavior will continue to be the same one that we have seen over the last several years.
