BTC/USD Forex Signal: More Bearish

Adam Lemon

BTC/USD: Pivotal point likely at $10,641

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action when the support level identified at $10,641 was first reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,421 or $10,351.
  • Put the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,641, $10,798, $10,847, or $11,023.
  • Put the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I still saw more potential on the long side as long as the price remained above $10,000 so it was possible to buy following a bounce at any of the identified support levels with the odds in your favor. However, a better approach was likely to be waiting until after we got a bullish breakout above the key resistance level at $11,023.

This analysis remains valid and was enough to keep out of trouble yesterday.

The price broke down below the former support level at $10,641 which has now flipped to become probable new resistance.

Technically, the picture looks a little more bearish, and recent price action suggests that if $10,621 now holds as resistance, the price is going to travel back down towards $10,000 and the two key support levels down there which remain valid, at $10,421 and $10,351.

I will be happy to take a long trade later from a bullish bounce at either of those two support levels.

BTC/USD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of FOMC meeting minutes at 7 pm London time.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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