Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bearish price action took place a little way above the resistance level identified at 105.39.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be entered between 8am New York time Thursday and 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 105.81, 106.07, or 106.50.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 105.20, 104.87, or 104.37.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that overall, we were seeing a somewhat more bullish situation here. However, I did not have much confidence any bullish move would be fast or strong – if it played out, it may well be slow.
I was correct to look to the long side, but I was only prepared to enter a long trade from a bounce at a support level, and the nearest support lever was never quite reached. We can also say the bullish movement is relatively slow, so it was an OK call overall.
The move up is driven by a strong Dollar rather than by simple risk-off sentiment, although stock markets are relatively weak right now, with the S&P 500 Index again flirting with correction territory yesterday. So far, this week has seen the greenback put in its strongest performance in the Forex market since last April.
Another bullish sign here is that the price has now broken up above the old trend line, which is shown in the price chart below.
I take a cautiously bullish bias above 105.20 and I am prepared to enter a long trade if we get a bullish bounce there.
Regarding the JPY, there is nothing of high importance due today. Concerning the USD, the Chair of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary will be testifying before Congress at 3pm London time.