EUR/USD: Significant price is well below 1.1750 area
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached during yesterday’s London session.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken prior to 5 pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1692, 1.1719, or 1.1775.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1624.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that if the price could get established below 1.1725 later, it was quite likely to fall further to test the support level at 1.1685. I was still prepared to take a long trade if we get a bullish bounce there. If the price could get established below 1.1685, I thought that would be a very bearish sign.
This was a good call as the price did move down over the day after it broke below 1.1725. However, the price is currently failing to get established below 1.1685, and this support level seems to have been invalidated anyway.
The price in recent hours has reached its lowest level for a few weeks and is not far off a new multi-month low. Technically, we clearly see a bearish breakdown below the established range of the past few weeks.
There are many reasons to be bearish, though it is worth noting that the British Pound is falling more sharply than the Euro, and to new record lows, against the U.S. Dollar.
Technically there is every reason to expect a further fall to at least the next key support level which I have identified at 1.1624. However, we can expect some important data affecting the Eurozone economy today, plus testimony from the Chair of the Federal Reserve, which might push the price around in an unexpected way.
I would only look to take short trades today.
Regarding the EUR, there will be releases of French Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI at 8:15 am London time, followed 15 minutes later by the German equivalents. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI at 2:45 pm, followed 15 minutes later by testimony from the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Congress.