BTC/USD Forex Signal: Weak Bullish Breakout

Adam Lemon

If the release encourages risk-on sentiment in the market, expect a stronger upwards movement by Bitcoin to $11,460 within just a few hours.

BTC/USD: Room to rise to $11,460

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action at $10,790.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered before 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,620 or $9,731.
  • Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,460, $11,557, or $11,804.
  • Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the price was being held down by the resistance level at $10,790 and this was clearly going to be the day’s pivotal point.

I was prepared to take a bullish bias if we had gotten two consecutive hourly closes above $10,790 as the price had room to rise all the way to $11,460 after that hurdle.

This was an OK call as the price is slightly higher than the entry point given by that strategy.

The technical picture now is more bullish as we have seen the invalidation of all resistance levels below $10,790. However, over the medium-term, the price rise is still happening quite slowly without much momentum.

I think the price will continue to inch up until the FOMC release later. If the release encourages risk-on sentiment in the market, expect a stronger upwards movement by Bitcoin to $11,460 within just a few hours.

One good strategy might be to try to buy and hold on following a bullish turn after a retracement back to $10,620 if it happens.

BTC/USDRegarding the USD, there will be a release of Core Retail Sales data at 1:30 pm London time. The Federal Reserve will be releasing their Economic Projections, Statement, and Federal Funds Rate at 7 pm followed half an hour later by the usual press conference.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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