BTC/USD Forex Signal: Weak Triangle Breakout

Adam Lemon

Consolidation above $10,696 likely over medium term

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,696, $10,456, $10,123 or $10,039.
  • Place the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Idea

  • Short entry at the next touch of $13,218.
  • Place the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I thought we were likely to see a bullish breakout from the short-term consolidating triangle. This was a good call as we did get this bullish breakout, but it was neither strong nor long-lasting.

The price has fallen back to where it was when it was in the triangle, and the old bullish trend line from the triangle is clearly broken. Furthermore, we did not see a new high yesterday beyond what the price made earlier this week.

These signs suggest there is not much bullishness here despite the fact that there are no key resistance levels nearby, so the price seems to have a lot of room to move higher.

Therefore, the most likely near-term outlook is a consolidation above the nearest support level at $10,696.

I am prepared to take a long trade from a bullish bounce off that level when it is next reached, but I would be very cautious and monitor it on a short time frame as it looks quite likely that it would not move very far.

BTC/USD

Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Advance GDP data at 1:30pm London time.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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