Trading Support and Resistance

Adam Lemon

The Forex market showed a decrease in volatility compared to the previous week, with only 59% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value last week. 

This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let’s look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

Monthly Forecast June 2020

For the month of June, we forecasted that the best trade would be long EUR/USD. The performance so far has been positive, as shown in the table below:

June 2020 Performance to Date

Weekly Forecast 14th June 2020 

Last week, we made no forecast as there were no strong counter-trend movements sharply against any dominant trends over the past week.

This week, we again make no forecast.

The Forex market showed a decrease in volatility compared to the previous week, with only 59% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value last week. Volatility is likely to remain at a similar level over the coming week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the Japanese Yen, and relative weakness in the Australian Dollar.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Previous Monthly Forecasts

You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that can be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

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Let’s see how trading two of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:

GBP/USD

We had expected the level at 1.2624 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level during the first half of last Tuesday’s London session, turning bullish with an inside candlestick breaking up at the up arrow signaling the timing of the turn. This trade has been profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of approximately 4 to 1 so far based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

GBP/USD Hourly Price Chart for 3rd to 12th June 2020

EUR/JPY

We had expected the level at 120.24 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work well. The H1 chart below shows how the price rejected this level near the beginning of last Friday’s Tokyo session, turning bullish with a bullish outside candlestick breaking up at the up arrow signaling the timing of the turn. This trade has been profitable, achieving a maximum positive reward to risk ratio of approximately 3 to 1 so far based upon the size of the entry candlestick structure.

EUR/JPY Hourly Price Chart for 3rd to 12th June 2020

That is all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.

About the Author
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

Currency Pairs:
Comments

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Markus
2020-06-15 06:39:14Z

I look forward to this piece every week. Thanks Adam


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