EUR/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Likely

Adam Lemon

The most likely scenario by far seems to be a consolidation. 

EUR/USD: Risk-off sentiment turn pushes price down

Yesterday’s signals produced a losing long trade from the bullish pin candlestick which rejected the support level at 1.1281.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken prior to 5 pm London time today only.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1258, 1.1281, 1.1311, or 1.1354. 
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1241, 1.1205, or 1.1155. 
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the technical had become considerably more bullish in line with the long-term trend. However, there were initial signs of a bearish double top at or near the key resistance level identified at 1.1354. I was looking to take a long trade from support.

I was wrong, as renewed risk-off sentiment boosted the Dollar and hit the Euro. The Euro is also suffering from fears of renewed trade tensions between the U.S.A. and the E.U. These developments pushed the price down, printing new lower resistance levels along the way.

Technically, looking at the price chart below, it can be said that the picture is mixed, with plenty of support and resistance levels nearby looking equally balanced.

The most likely scenario by far seems to be a consolidation. We will probably see the price move sideways now and support and resistance levels nearby will most likely not be well respected. In these conditions, it is going to be best to stand aside from trading this pair for the time being.

EUR/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the EUR or the USD.

About the Author
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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