AUD/USD Forex Signal: Congested Narrowing Triangle

Adam Lemon

I expect that this market will only see volume pick up enough to make trading worthwhile.

AUD/USD: Bulls and bears evenly matched

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level identified at 0.6892 was first reached.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken between 8 am New York time Thursday and 5 pm Tokyo time Friday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6853 or 0.6774.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip below the lowest recent price.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6892 or 0.6918.
  • Place the stop loss 1 pip above the highest recent price.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that due to the narrowing, consolidating triangle formation, I would continue to avoid trading this pair as long as the price remained between 0.6774 and 0.7000 unless we got some dramatic price action.

There has been no such dramatic price action. In fact, the downwards move is a consolidative wave that is completely in harmony with what the price has been doing for a while, suggesting the pattern is likely to continue.

I am prepared to take a long trade from a bullish reversal at 0.6774 or alternatively, to be bullish if the price can get established above the major round number at 0.7000. I expect that this market will only see volume pick up enough to make trading worthwhile once the price moves out of the triangle shown within the price chart below.

AUD/USD

There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the AUD or the USD.

About the Author
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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