Be cautious in trading this pair today.
AUD/USD: Confusing short-term trends
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as the bearish price action took place a few pips above 0.6964.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Trades may only be taken between 8am New York time Tuesday and 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6902 or 0.6774.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
I wrote yesterday that we had seen a little support in recent hours just above the support level identified at 0.6774 and this may be a mildly bullish sign. I was hoping to take a long trade following a bullish bounce at that level.
There was no retracement to that level, unfortunately, but I was correct to look to the bullish side, as the price rose strongly here in line with the dominant risk-on / risk-off market dynamic, which flipped yesterday from risk-off to risk-on.
The technical picture is mixed because although we had a strong bullish movement and a bounce at support which is also confluent with the round number at 0.6900 when we look at the chart as a whole, there is no clear trend. There are recent infective highs above the current price which could easily act as support.
For these reasons, it will be wise to be cautious in trading this pair today.
I see the best potential opportunity as a long trade from another bullish bounce at 0.6902. Profits should be taken conservatively, and this could be an especially interesting trade for scalpers.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales Data at 1:30pm London time, followed by testimony from the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Congress at 3pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD.