Retreat from 3-month high price.
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish action when the price first reached the support level identified at 0.6616.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be taken between 8am New York time Thursday and 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6632 or 0.6683.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Idea
- Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6556.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the price was just under the key resistance level at 0.6683 as at the time of writing, so was likely to need a bearish retracement before it could rise again. This was a good call as we have seen a strong bearish retracement from that high.
In fact, this move down may be more than a simple retracement, as the volatility of the bearish movement was quite high and the move was sharp, suggesting the high may hold over the medium term. The price action has also printed a new lower resistance level at 0.6632, which is another bearish sign.
Risk sentiment is holding up quite well and the AUD has benefitted from that. We see the short-term action looking bullish, and it seems likely that the resistance at 0.6632 will soon be broken to the upside. However, even if that happens, I doubt the price can exceed yesterday’s high which produced a strong sell-off from the 0.6683 area. Therefore, I see the best potential trade set up today as a short trade from a strong bearish rejection at 0.6683.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP data at 1:30pm London time.