BTC/USD Forex Signal: Narrowing Triangle - 31 March 2020

Adam Lemon

BTC/USD: $6,600 looks very pivotal

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was insufficiently bearish price action at $6,418.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades my only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,396 or $6,293.

  • Put the stop loss $50 below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade Idea

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,600.

  • Put the stop loss $50 above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that I again took no directional bias and would be prepared to take a trade in either direction from a reversal at either key support or resistance levels nearby. This was a good call as the price has essentially continued to consolidate.

Bitcoin is starting to get more interesting as volatility continues to be relatively low and a narrowing triangle can now be drawn within the price chart below. The resistance factors look stronger than the support despite the congestion of levels near the current price. The level that really stands out is the resistance at $6,600 which is a round number and is also confluent with the upper trend line of the consolidating triangle.

I think we could see a bearish reversal from $6,600 but I would be prepared to take a bullish bias if we get two consecutive hourly closes above that level later today, as it would probably signify a breakout.BTCUSDRegarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time.

About the Author
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy

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