USDJPY: Bullish breakout beyond 110.00 in doubt
Yesterday’s signals may have produced a short trade from 109.95 which would still be in play, but it would probably be wise to exit such a trade immediately.
Today’s USD/JPY Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken from 8am New York time Thursday to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Idea
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 110.69.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 109.18 or 109.00.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/JPY Analysis
I wrote yesterday that the odds were still in favour of higher prices, but I thought that if we had seen a break below 109.75 the price could quickly fall still further before finding support.
I was ready to take a bullish bias if the price could close above 110.00 for two consecutive hours after the New York open. It did not, so overall this was a good call as the price has continued to go sideways on low volatility and this kept us on the side for the time being which was the right thing to do.
The technical picture is unchanged as the odds are still in favour of higher prices but there is no real sign of it happening. I think that if today’s New York close is not above 110.00 then this is probably going to be a failed breakout beyond 110.00 and we will instead see the price fall. If today does close above 110.00 then I would take a bullish bias.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the JPY. Concerning the USD, Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time.