Trading Support and Resistance

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This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:

Let’s look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:

Currency Price Data

Monthly Forecast January 2020

For the month of January, we forecasted that the best trades would be long EUR/USD and long NZD/USD. The performances to date are as follows:

Monthly Forecast

Weekly Forecast 12th January 2020

We made no weekly forecast last week, and we do the same this week, as there were no strong counter-trend movements last week.

The Forex market has shown decreased activity, with only 11% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value over the past week. Volatility is likely to be higher over the coming week.

Last week was dominated by relative strength in the U.S. Dollar, and relative weakness in the Japanese Yen.

You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Previous Monthly Forecasts

You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:

Support Resistance levels

Let’s see how trading two of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:

GBP/USD

We had expected the level at 1.3194 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work very well. The H1 chart below shows how shortly after last Tuesday’s London session began, the price bounced strongly off that level, forming a bearish inside candlestick marked by the down arrow in the price chart below, which immediately broke to the downside. This trade has given a good maximum reward to risk ratio so far of just under 4 to 1.

GBPUSD

USD/JPY

We had expected the level at 107.78 might act as support, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work very well. The H1 chart below shows how just after Wednesday had opened for trading in Asia, the price bounced strongly off that level, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick marked by the up arrow in the price chart below, which immediately broke to the upside. This trade has given a maximum reward to risk ratio so far of just under 3 to 1.

USDJPY

That’s all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
Learn more from Adam in his free lessons at FX Academy