BTC/USD: Level looks increasingly pivotal
Yesterday’s signals produced a losing trade from the bullish bounce at $8,461.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,375, $8,216, or $7,947.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $8,766 or $9,011.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that I thought that bulls and bears were now very evenly matched, so it may be wise to stand aside until we had gotten two consecutive hourly closes either above $8,766 (a bullish sign) or below $8,461 (a bearish sign).
This was a good call as it was enough to stay out of trouble, however it was traders bearish from $8,766 who made money over the last 24 hours.
The picture is now looking more bearish as the descending trend line has held, and the price is currently trying to break below this level at $8,461 which has now become very pivotal.
I repeat my analysis from yesterday – two consecutive hourly closes below $8,461 is a bearish sign, and I will take a bearish bias here on this pair for the day if we get those closes now.
Bitcoin tends to not do well in a risk-off environment such as we have today, which strengthens the bearish case.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD.