GBP/USD Forex Signal - 11 December 2019

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GBPUSD: Bearish retracement on narrowing British opinion polls

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as neither of the key levels were reached.

Today’s GBP/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

Long Trade Idea

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3081 or 1.3041.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Idea

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.3249.
  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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GBP/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that due to the British Conservative Party remaining strongly ahead in the opinion polls for Thursday’s election there was probably more upside to come here. I was correct as the price continued to rise yesterday to make a new 31-month high price above 1.3200. However, last night a new opinion poll was released showing the race is tightening, although the poll still forecast a Conservative victory. Nevertheless, rumours of internal polling showing the race is close enough to make an inconclusive result possible has sent the Pound down.

It is really impossible to forecast price movement in this pair now as everything will depend upon the results of further opinion polls which may be released today plus rumours, then voting will begin tomorrow morning.

The only thing I can forecast here is increased volatility.

Betting markets are still predicting a 75% probability of a Conservative majority and that the majority will be by about 40 seats.

gbpusd

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the GBP. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time and the FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and Federal Funds Rate at 7pm plus the usual press conference half an hour later.

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
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