AUDUSD: Bulls break above bearish trend line
Last Thursday’s signals produced a losing short trade from the rejection of the resistance level at 0.6771 and then a winning long trade from the rejection of the support level at 0.6754.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
⦁ Go short following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6803 or 0.6822.
⦁ Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
⦁ Go long following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6772 or 0.6754.
⦁ Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that there was short-term bearish momentum and the price looked set to hit new medium-term low prices. However, I also noted that the next support level at 0.6754 was very confluent with the big quarter-number at 0.6750, so it could see some long-term buyers enter the market if it is hit, possibly pushing the price up.
This second point was important and overall, both the resistance and support levels were respected. The bullish bounce from the support at 0.6754 has been strong and the price has again broken the (readjusted) bearish trend line, giving a somewhat more bullish technical picture.
There is short-term bullish momentum, but at present, the medium-term picture is evenly balanced and hard to predict. We also have major data due for both currencies, so it may be best to stand aside until after the data releases. However, if you are holding a long trade in profit, there is no pressing reason to exit from it yet.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.
Concerning the AUD, the RBA will release its Cash Rate and Rate Statement at 3:30am.