This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
⦁ Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months.
⦁ Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week.
Let’s look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast November 2019
For the month of November, we forecast that the best trade would be long GBP/USD following a daily close higher than 1.3081. There has not been a daily close above that level yet.
Weekly Forecast 10th November 2019
Last week, we made no weekly forecast as there were no very strong countertrend movements. This week we again make no forecast.
The Forex market has become slightly less active, with only 15% of the important currency pairs and crosses moving by more than 1% in value over the past week. Volatility is likely to be at least a little over the next week. There are few strong trends in the Forex market as present, except the bullish trend in the USD/JPY currency pair.
Last week was dominated by relative strength in the U.S. Dollar, and relative weakness in the New Zealand Dollar.
Previous Monthly Forecasts
You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
Let’s see how trading one of these key pairs last week off key support and resistance levels could have worked out:
We had expected the level at 0.6927 might act as resistance, as it had acted previously as both support and resistance. Note how these “flipping” levels can work very well. The H1 chart below shows how during the first half of last Tuesday’s London session, the price bounced strongly off that level, forming a bearish outside candlestick marked by the down arrow in the price chart below, which immediately broke to the downside. This trade has given a very good maximum reward to risk ratio of more than 5 to 1 so far.
That’s all for this week. You can trade our forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account to test the strategies and strengthen your self-confidence before investing real funds.