NZDUSD: Unpredictable
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels given were hit that day.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
⦁ Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6390 or 0.6430.
⦁ Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
⦁ Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6349 or 0.6315.
⦁ Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
⦁ Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
⦁ Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that although the picture had become a little more bearish technically with 0.6390 continuing to hold as resistance, there was still more action in the AUD/USD currency pair, so again, I preferred to avoid trading this currency pair. This was an OK call, as the price did little that day.
We are seeing some short-term bullish momentum, but the price action here overall looks unpredictable. The best opportunities will probably be in playing the range from 0.6475 to 0.6315, and it seems very unlikely that either price will be hit today unless there is a big surprise in the New Zealand Inflation Expectations data due later – it might be possible just after that release to fade a spike at the touch of either 0.6430 or 0.6315.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the USD as it is a public holiday today in the U.S.A. Regarding the NZD, there will be a release of Inflation Expectations data at 2am London time.