AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie dollar to test recent highs

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The Australian dollar has rallied again during the day on Friday, as we continue to grind towards the crucial 0.69 level. This is an area that offered a significant amount of resistance recently, it is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of a swing down to the lows. With that, it’s likely that the market will find some type of resistance above, between here and the 0.69 handle. Even if we were to break above there, there is still a whole confluence of factors that can come into play to work against the value of the Australian dollar.

The 0.69 level in and of itself is somewhat important, but we also have the 200 day EMA above, which is racing towards that level. With that in mind I think it could perhaps break the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, but the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is currently sitting at the 0.6930 handle, and will have the 200 day EMA approach it rather soon. I think it’s possible that this market is simply trying to carve out a new range, perhaps between the 0.67 level on the bottom in the 0.69 level and the top. That being said, this pair is at the mercy of the US/China trade headlines, which are relatively quiet right now so that might be part of why we are starting to see a little bit of a “risk on” attitude here.

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Australia does have gold. Ann Gold markets look as if they could make a significant move. While that might not be the only thing driving the Aussie dollar, it could be a reason to think that we go a little bit higher. Quite frankly though, if the Australian dollar rallies here I would much rather buy it against other currencies like the Euro or the Swiss franc, or even better yet the British pound depending on how the whole Brexit thing turns out over the weekend. Unfortunately, most people get stuck trading against the US dollar don’t realize that most of the best opportunities can use this chart is a barometer and then present themselves in other markets. Triangulation between charts such as the AUD/USD, AUD/CHF, and USD/CHF pairs can give you an idea of just how strong the Aussie is and how weak the Swiss franc is, for example. Remember, the US dollar is quite often simply a measuring stick of relative strength or weakness between other currencies. If the Australian dollar rallies from here significantly, I will be buying it, but not necessarily against the greenback.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.