USDCHF Analysis: Room to rise but choppy
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bearish price action when 0.9946 was reached.
Today’s USD/CHF Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades must be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Idea
Go short following a bearish price action reversal upon the next touch of 1.0033.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long following a bullish price action reversal upon the next touch of 0.9914 or 0.9889.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
USD/CHF Analysis
I wrote yesterday that 0.9946 was likely to be the day’s major pivotal point. I thought that if we had gotten 2 hourly closes above that level, the price would be set for a rise to at least 1.0000. Unfortunately, this wasn’t a great call as the price immediately fell after closing above that level, although only by about 35 pips.
The former resistance at 0.9946 has now been invalidated, so the price has room to rise all the way to 1.0033, but it may face resistance at or close to the parity level as well.
I would generally be weakly bullish here, but I think there are likely to be better opportunities elsewhere, unless the FOMC releases due later are very bullish for the greenback.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the CHF. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories at 3:30pm London time, followed by the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Projections at 7pm, followed by a press conference half an hour later.