Bitcoin: Bullish consolidation
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered as there was no bullish price action at $10,461.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,258, $9,982, or $9,801.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,921 or $11,112.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it looked like we were getting a bearish retracement which would take the price back down towards the two support levels and the broken trend lines. I would be prepared to again take a bullish bias if we had gotten a solid bullish reversal bounce at either of those two support levels.
This was a good call as it correctly anticipated how the price would move, but the nearest support level, which was reached did not produce a bullish bounce, and so it has become invalidated.
We are now seeing a bullish consolidation with aimless price movement between $10,258 and $10,951. I think higher prices are likely, but perhaps not today.
I would take a bullish bias if we get a retracement to $10,258 and a bullish bounce there later. This level is likely to be solid as it is confluent with the quarter-number at $10,250.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 1:15pm London time, followed by Crude Oil Inventories at 4pm.