Bitcoin: Bearish below $10,000
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,073, $8,893, or $8,610.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,801, $10,036 or $10,235.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the price was showing short-term bearish price action, so although the downwards movement was probably mostly played out already, it looked likely to continue down to hit the support level at $9,073, so might be traded short on the shorter time frames. This was not a great call in the end because the price was not really able to get much below the $9,400 level before turning around and rising slowly from there.
The technical picture is still quite bearish. The price is failing to break above the resistance level at $9,801 which seems certain to be today’s important pivotal point. The longer this level holds, the more bearish the outlook will be. However, for today, I would prefer to wait for a bearish reversal at the next higher resistance level near $10,000 before taking a bearish bias.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the USD, it is a public holiday in the U.S.A. today.