BTC/USD Forex Signal

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Bitcoin: Bearish below $10,140

Yesterday’s signals produced a losing long trade from the bullish rejection of the support level identified at $9,982.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $9,974 or $9,801.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $10,140 or $10,476.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that we had now a bearish consolidation between $9,982 and the $10,500 area. I was prepared to take a weak bearish bias if we had gotten a bearish rejection following a retracement to $10,476 later, targeting $9,982 as profit.

Despite my weak bearish bias, I still saw $9,982 as quite likely to hold as support, and the level at $9,801 as very likely to continue to hold as support if reached.

I was correct to take a weak bearish bias, as the price has continued to move down over the past 24 hours, but the level at $10,476 was not hit so an entry was not given. I was wrong technically to see $9,982 as holding although if adjusted down a little the level is still holding.

The weak bullish short-term trend persists, but I do not see the price as likely to get established below $9,800. For this reason, I would avoid trading this pair today as I do not think the day’s price movement will be easy to exploit profitable.BTCUSDRegarding the USD, there will be a release of Crude Oil Inventories data at 3:30pm London time.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.