NZDUSD: New 3-year low price at 0.6376
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at either 0.6500 or 0.6444.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Wednesday and 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6444 or 0.6500.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6347 or 0.6298.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that it was difficult to say what was most likely to happen here next, particularly as we had the major monthly central bank input on the Kiwi coming later which could cause a lot of volatility and push the price anywhere. The best opportunity here was likely to be fading a reversal after any spike to a key level soon after the RBNZ releases during the Asian session.
This was a good call as the RBNZ made a surprise rate cut of 0.50% to 1.00% which sent the price down sharply to a new 3-year low. The price then made a strong v-shaped recovery from that low, which has continued over recent hours, although it did not make that bullish turn at a key level so my forecast couldn’t exploit it. However, my analysis did have the correct idea.
The price now is rising strongly but will very soon hit its first test at the former support level of 0.6444 which is likely to now act as resistance. This will probably be today’s pivotal point, and if it is broken easily, we could see the price all the way back to the big round number at 0.6500 soon.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the USD or the NZD.