NZDUSD: Still bearish below 0.6448
Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as unfortunately the bearish price action took place just a few pips above the resistance level I had identified at 0.6448.
Today’s NZD/USD Signals
Risk 0.50%.
Trades may only be taken from 8am New York time Monday until 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Idea
- Short entry following bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6448, 0.6475, or 0.6500.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
- Long entry following bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6347.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
NZD/USD Analysis
I wrote last Thursday that the establishment of lower resistance at 0.6448 plus the recent bearish price action was a signal that we were likely today to get a breakdown of the 0.6420 area and a push down to still lower prices.
This did not happen on Thursday, but it happened on Friday, and the price is now moving down bearishly albeit slowly to approach the round number at 0.6400.
The New Zealand Dollar is more bearish than the Australian Dollar and one of the most bearish major currencies generally, which is a bearish sign. There are no key support levels under the current price until 0.6347 so the price has plenty of room to fall.
I would take a bearish bias on this pair today if the price is below 0.6400 and making a new low at 9am New York time, until 0.6350 is reached.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning either the NZD or the USD.