EURUSD: Bearish break below 1.1163
Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action below 1.1163.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1163, 1.1198, or 1.1244.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Idea
Go long following a bullish price action reversal immediately upon the next touch of 1.1117.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
I wrote yesterday that although the price was still within its range from 1.1163 to 1.1244, the price was looking more bearish after the U.S. Dollar strengthened upon an announcement that the implementation of tariffs on Chinese imports would be delayed. I was more convinced that we would see a breakdown below 1.1163 and that this level was very likely to be the day’s pivotal point.
This was a good call.
The picture is now more bearish as we have had the breakdown, with the Euro weakening. Although it has been very slow and reluctant to break down, there is certainly a long-term bearish trend, so the current price movement is with trend.
I would be prepared to take a bearish bias today if we get a solid bearish reversal following a bullish retracement to the nearest resistance level at 1.1163.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 1:30pm London time.