EUR/USD Forex Signal

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EURUSD: Still ranging from 1.1163 to 1.1244

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as none of the key levels were reached yet.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken between 8am and 5pm London time today only.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1244, 1.1279, or 1.1317.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long following a bullish price action reversal immediately upon the next touch of 1.1163 or 1.1117.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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EUR/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that there was no change to the ranging conditions. As the Euro was strong as part of a flight to safety, I saw a bullish breakout above 1.1244 is more likely than a bearish breakdown below 1.1163, which suggested 1.1163 could be a good buying opportunity for this currency pair.

However, the price has just maintained its range within the same area for yet another day. This increases the likelihood that the eventual breakout will be strong, but a look at the price chart below suggests that the area close to 1.1250 is being heavily defended, perhaps by an institution protecting a big option expiry near that price. There is still a “risk-off” environment in the market but that flow seems to be more and more into precious metals and the Japanese Yen and less into the Euro.

Overall, I would not look to the bullish side particularly. I think the best strategy here would be to trade any reversals at either nearby key boundary of this current price range and hope it takes off for a breakout at the other end of the range.EURUSDThere is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 1:30pm London time.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.