BTC/USD Forex Signal

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Bitcoin: Strongly bullish

Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at any of the key resistance levels which were reached.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.75% per trade.

Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

Long Trade Ideas

  • Long entry at a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $11,485 or $11,000.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $12,171 or $12,804.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $50 in profit by price.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $50 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

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BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote last Thursday that I thought the price was more likely to rise than to fall over the day, but the price was in an area where the action could become messy. Therefore, I preferred to sit on the side-line and wait for the price to get established above $10,200 before taking a bullish bias here.

This was a great call, I was right about both seeing the price as more likely to rise and fall over the day, and about the bullish indication of the price crossing above $10,200. The price has now risen by more than 10% from $10,200 and right now looks as if it is going to move still higher today.

The bullishness here in Bitcoin is a little strange because although the U.S. Dollar is weak, Bitcoin has tended to be sold in strongly risk-off market environments such as the one we have today. This makes me a more confident bull.

I think we will today see a further rise to at least $12,171 and therefore I will take a bullish bias here until at least that level if the price is above $11,760 at 9am London time today.BTCUSDRegarding the USD, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.